Analysis of grape production in the face of climate change

Grape, olive, and wheat are traditional Mediterranean Basin crops that have immense cultural, economic, and ecological importance, and are the basis for producing wine, olive oil, and pasta and bread products. Of fruit crops, grape has the largest area and the highest economic importance globally. These traditional Mediterranean crop systems and related food products have global relevance, and yet globally, all regions with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to climate change that threatens this Mediterranean bio-cultural heritage. However, how to analyze the complex tripartite ecological, economic, and social effects of climate change on these systems has been vexing and largely unexplored. Here we review how a bioeconomic approach using physiologically-based demographic models in the context of geographic information systems may be an important step in examining the complexity of these factors on grape. We show that with relatively modest data and funding, regional bioeconomic analysis of grape production under present weather and climate change is possible, and that management-relevant complexity can be included in a mechanistic way.