In this work, we propose an Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) approach to assigning Probability Density Functions (PDFs) to uncertain input parameters of Thermal-Hydraulic (T-H) models used to assess the reliability of passive safety systems. The approach uses experimental data within a Bayesian framework. The application to a RELAP5-3D model of the PERSEO (In-Pool Energy Removal System for Emergency Operation) facility located at SIET laboratory (Piacenza, Italy) is demonstrated. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied for output dimensionality reduction and Kriging meta-modeling is used to emulate the reduced set of RELAP5-3D code outputs. This is done to decrease the computational cost of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior sampling of the uncertain input parameters, which requires a large number of model simulations.

A Bayesian framework of inverse uncertainty quantification with principal component analysis and Kriging for the reliability analysis of passive safety systems

Mascari F.;
2021-01-01

Abstract

In this work, we propose an Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) approach to assigning Probability Density Functions (PDFs) to uncertain input parameters of Thermal-Hydraulic (T-H) models used to assess the reliability of passive safety systems. The approach uses experimental data within a Bayesian framework. The application to a RELAP5-3D model of the PERSEO (In-Pool Energy Removal System for Emergency Operation) facility located at SIET laboratory (Piacenza, Italy) is demonstrated. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied for output dimensionality reduction and Kriging meta-modeling is used to emulate the reduced set of RELAP5-3D code outputs. This is done to decrease the computational cost of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior sampling of the uncertain input parameters, which requires a large number of model simulations.
2021
Inverse uncertainty quantification
Kriging
Passive safety systems
Principal component analysis
Reliability analysis
Surrogate modeling
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12079/63872
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