The Italian national air pollution control programme: Air quality, health impact and cost assessment

Air pollution is the primary environmental cause of death globally. To improve air quality and reduce health impacts, the National Emission Ceilings Directive requires Member States of the European Union to provide National Air Pollution Control Programmes, including emission reduction measures aimed to achieve binding commitments for the years 2020 and 2030. Integrated assessment models are pivotal to assess the reduction of pollutants concentrations determined by measures implemented or foreseen for emission reduction. Here we discuss scenarios elaborated for year 2030 in the Italian National Air Pollution Control Programme, considering 2010 as reference year. The two scenarios, "With Measures" and "With Additional Measures", show a significant reduction of the pollutants concentration, namely PM2.5, NO2 and O3. The scenarios are here also used to provide an integrated approach for calculating the effect of the program on health impacts (mortality) and related costs. Avoidable attributable cases and associated costs are here reported at both the national and regional level and provide a significant framework to assess air-pollution reduction measures with an integrated approach. The procedure proposed may be therefore further developed and applied to assess the overall positive benefits (environmental, health and economic) determined by air-pollution control plans or other integrated policies targeting air quality, energy and climate goals.