Energy performance gap of the Italian residential building stock: Parametric energy simulations for theoretical deviation assessment from standard conditions

Energy Performance Gap (EPG) is a crucial issue in the building sector that can lead to an overestimation of the national energy policies. It is the difference between the calculated energy consumption and actual energy use, and it is relevant mainly for space heating. As EPG quantification or correction methods could lead to more realistic energy policies, EPG has become a focus of many studies and research. In this framework, this study aims to quantify the theoretical deviation of EPG, i.e., concerning to the standard conditions, for the Italian residential building stock by performing parametric energy simulations of thousands of representative reference buildings. After a comprehensive thermophysical characterization of the national building stock, parametric simulations were carried out by varying the main standard conditions set in the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) calculation. This approach allowed the quantification of EPG according to the climatic zone, building type, usage profile, and thermal insulation level of buildings, while also analysing the influence of these parameters on the EPG and checking for prebound or rebound effects (i.e. when standard consumption is greater or smaller than actual one). The study identified a range of EPG variability for both prebound (0% to +80%) and rebound (−30% to 0%) effects and quantified an average EPG between −3 and +16 kWh per heating degree day of the selected location as a function of the usage profile. This work represents the first attempt to calculate the EPG of the Italian residential building stock and it could lead to the correction of the national energy policies implemented in the building sector.