Changes in Mediterranean circulation patterns due to global warming may have strong socio-economic and environmental impacts. We analyze the future evolution of the Mediterranean surface circulation under different levels of global warming by using 28 multi-decadal simulations from a set of fully coupled and high-resolution regional climate models of the Med-CORDEX multi-model initiative. There is no model agreement for a significant basin-scale modification of the surface circulation. However significant and robust local circulation changes are identified. In particular, the circulation is expected to shift from cyclonic to predominantly anticyclonic in the northern Balearic, while a strengthening of the cyclonic circulation is expected in the southern Adriatic. Furthermore, our results show an increase in the Mediterranean circulation variability primarily associated with a general increase of meso-scale activity. Generally, we find a linear increase of the identified changes with global warming levels.

Response of the Mediterranean Sea Surface Circulation at Various Global Warming Levels: A Multi-Model Approach

Anav A.;Sannino G.;
2024-01-01

Abstract

Changes in Mediterranean circulation patterns due to global warming may have strong socio-economic and environmental impacts. We analyze the future evolution of the Mediterranean surface circulation under different levels of global warming by using 28 multi-decadal simulations from a set of fully coupled and high-resolution regional climate models of the Med-CORDEX multi-model initiative. There is no model agreement for a significant basin-scale modification of the surface circulation. However significant and robust local circulation changes are identified. In particular, the circulation is expected to shift from cyclonic to predominantly anticyclonic in the northern Balearic, while a strengthening of the cyclonic circulation is expected in the southern Adriatic. Furthermore, our results show an increase in the Mediterranean circulation variability primarily associated with a general increase of meso-scale activity. Generally, we find a linear increase of the identified changes with global warming levels.
2024
climate change
coupled regional climate models
global warming levels
med-CORDEX
mediterranean sea
surface circulation
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
Response of the Mediterranean Sea Surface Circulation at Various Global Warming Levels_ A Multi‐Model Approach.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: Versione Editoriale (PDF)
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 2.87 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
2.87 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12079/79227
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 1
social impact