Estimation of Daily Charging Profiles of Private Cars in Urban Areas Through Floating Car Data †

This paper presents a comprehensive methodology to forecast the daily energy demand associated with recharging private electric vehicles in urban areas. The approach is based on plausible scenarios regarding the penetration of battery-powered vehicles and the availability of charging infrastructure. Accurate space and time forecasting of charging activities and power requirements is a critical issue in supporting the transition from conventional to battery-powered vehicles for urban mobility. This technological shift represents a key milestone toward achieving the zero-emissions target set by the European Green Deal for 2050. The methodology leverages Floating Car Data (FCD) samples. The widespread use of On-Board Units (OBUs) in private vehicles for insurance purposes ensures the methodology’s applicability across diverse geographical contexts. In addition to FCD samples, the estimation of charging demand for private electric vehicles is informed by a large-scale, detailed survey conducted by ENEA in Italy in 2023. Funded by the Ministry of Environment and Energy Security as part of the National Research on the Electric System, the survey explored individual charging behaviors during daily urban trips and was designed to calibrate a discrete choice model. To date, the methodology has been applied to the Metropolitan Area of Rome, demonstrating robustness and reliability in its results on two different scenarios of analysis. Each demand/supply scenario has been evaluated in terms of the hourly distribution of peak charging power demand, at the level of individual urban zones or across broader areas. Results highlight the role of the different components of power demand (at home or at other destinations) in both scenarios. Charging at intermediate destinations exhibits a dual peak pattern—one in the early morning hours and another in the afternoon—whereas home-based charging shows a pronounced peak during evening return hours and a secondary peak in the early afternoon, corresponding to a decline in charging activity at other destinations. Power distributions, as expected, sensibly differ from one scenario to the other, conditional to different assumptions of private and public recharge availability and characteristics.