Meeting 2030 Targets: Heat Pump Installation Scenarios in Italy

The study examines the role of heat pumps (HPs) in achieving the targets set by the Italian National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) for 2030, using official data and European-recognized calculation methodologies to quantify the renewable energy produced. Starting from the current stock analysis—21 million HPs installed in 2022, providing 39 GWth of thermal capacity—the research outlines potential growth scenarios based on installation trends from the past three years: Scenario A assumes 2.5 million HPs/year, (b) 2.2 million/year, and (c) 1.6 million/year. Only Scenario A, the most ambitious, achieves full compliance with 2030 targets by ensuring over 4723 ktoe of renewable energy produced. An additional Scenario D is analyzed, based on the lowest annual installed capacity observed in the past three years but with a modified technology mix emphasizing air-to-water (A/W) and ground-source water-to-water (W/W) HPs. This scenario still achieves the 2030 goals, reaching 66.04 GWth and 4859 ktoe of renewable energy. The results confirm that technology choices will be strategic to meet the targets. The study also highlights the importance of stable incentive policies, proper development of the industrial supply chain, and a plan for the technological upgrading of the existing systems stock.